Scam of the Century

Bitcoin is the scam of the century.

By now most people already know that America is owing $35 trillion in debts as of today, which is more than 120% of their GDP of $28 trillion.  This is highly dangerous and may result in a market crash; causing hyperinflation and widespread unemployment and suffering.

So what do the Americans do?  They are not able to repay such a huge amount of debt, or even bring it down to an acceptable level of 60-80% of its GDP.  Suddenly they had a genius idea.  Why not ask everyone else to help us pay off the whole debt?

Now who is going to do that?  All their allies are themselves up to their necks in debt.  The rest of the world, even the rich, are not willing to help anyone pay off their debts.  After all, why should they?

Then the Americans had an even more genius idea.  Create a cheap or better still, worthless, product and get the world to buy from them.

The idea of Bitcoin was born.  It might as well have been any other product out of the fairy tale books.  Now what is Bitcoin? 

1. Bitcoin is something that can appreciate from 1 cent to 1 dollar.  From 1 dollar to a thousand dollars.  And from a thousand dollcars to a hundred thousand dollars today.  And based on such track record over just a decade, who is to say it will not appreciate to a million dollars and beyond?
2. Warren Buffett said that Bitcoin (and hence all other cryptos) have no intrinsic value.  Why, Bitcoin is money that you can't see and touch, and you can't buy anything with it.  So what kind of money is that?  Money that you can't transact with and can't store as value (it's too volatile; it has depreciated by 99% overnight) is not really money, is it?
3. But Bitcoin can appreciate!  That's the awesome part.  It has appreciated from 1 cent in 2009 when it first started, to $100,000 today in 2024 - a short period of only 15 years.  As such, people today get confused.  Without financial intelligence people can't tell the difference between price and value.  They think these two words have the same meaning  Right now with Bitcoin at historical high you can't convince anyone that Bitcoin money is not real.  They will say you are the one who is crazy.  Hey!  You can easily convert Bitcoin money back into fiat money and vice versa.  So, why do you still say Bitcoin is not money?  You see, the poor blokes are clueless.  Now you know why no government or school in the world teaches us about money.  Bitcoin fans who keep cheering it up all the way are actually useful idiots who can't be blamed for their ignorance.

So Bitcoin was invented.  By someone called Satoshi Nakamoto. Conspiracy theory says it's just some smart American programmer combined with an economics genius.  Now the whole world is paying insane money to buy Bitcoin which cost nothing and is worth nothing.  America, through its proxies, are collecting all this Bitcoin money amounting to trillions and will use it to repay all its creditors, with excess to put into her own pocket.  In a way the whole world is "forced" to help America repay its huge debt because they are greedy and want to speculate on Bitcoin's appreciation.  The whole world then (especially the richer ones) unwittingly helps America to repay her debts.

The crooks will also eventually lose their ill-gotten gains and illegal money which they can no longer hide in Swiss accounts.  They must keep buying Bitcoin in order to keep raising its value.  They stand to gain a lot by storing the value of their illegal money anonymously under Bitcoin.  If Bitcoin finally crashes as predicted by Warren Buffett and his late lifetime business partner, Charlie Munger, then the crooks will receive punishment of sorts when their money disappears in a crypto crash.  But then again these crooks are so powerful that they may be the first ones to be alerted to the event of a crash and they will remove their money from Bitcoin and place it elsewhere.  In that case, the other legitimate rich guys, together with lots of poor guys, will eventually become the fall guys when rugpull happens.  (Rugpull is a technical term used in crypto circles to mean an overnight disappearance of money value stored in a crypto coin,

So, there you have it.  Bitcoin and alt-coins are shooting through the roof.  Everyone is tempted to jump on the bandwagon.  FOLO is stronger than ever.  Fear Of Losing Out.  People are saying, why not we let others worry about the moral and ethical part of the investment?  After all, we are just small investors looking to make a bit of money.  So they enter the market with something they can afford; say, a thousand bucks.  That thousand bucks  quickly becomes ten thousand bucks and they keep investing, without taking any profits.  They think that the more they invest the more they will make.  So why take out any money at all.  That's stupid, they think.  They will keep pushing Bitcoin higher and higher until it breaks and they will lose everything overnight.

Don't be greedy.  If you really want to play the game, keep taking your profits away from the table and put it into property or stocks or business.  Let the rest of your profits run.

Be smart.  Good luck!

Stay healthy, stay safe.

Teacher Tan,

Bangkok

December 2024

DOING THE RIGHT THING

Peter Drucker, the father of management studies, says that it is more important to do the right thing than to do things right.  This is particularly true in Malaysian politics for the past sixty years.  We should have chosen a leader and a government that is honest and capable, regardless of race or religion.  We should have rejected race and religion politics right from the start.  

The government so far have never adopted or practiced this and it resulted in a government that most people complain about almost every single day for the past many decades, with the Malay politicians happily exploiting the lack of opposition to their plot of using race and religion to continue governing the country.  After almost six decades Malaysia is still deeply mired in corruption, cronyism and abuse of power, recently culiminating in the world-famous 1MDB corruption scandal.  Lately it resulted in poor management of Covid-19; causing more than 10,000 deaths so far and millions of businesses closing down nationwide.

The opposition, with DAP in particular, did not do the right thing since Day One.  This has led to the country's situation today.  Right from the start they were doing the wrong thing, that is, trying to create a Malaysian Malaysia and to fight corruption and abuse of power.  Now, many may ask, "How can trying to unite a country and fight corruption be doing the wrong thing?"  Well, we can just take a look at the results.  After sixty years they do not have a party membership that reflects the racial composition of the country.  Not even close.  And, after sixty years of fighting corruption how many corruptors have they put behind bars?  And why after sixty years, they not only failed to arrest corruption but instead allowed it to rise to the highest level in the form of 1MDB?  Their excuse is simply because for all these years they did not have any power to convict corruptors or stop corruption.  Which means they have failed miserably.  They should have attacked the root cause and fought the politics that allowed people to corrupt instead of making a futile attempt at the fighting the symptoms of corruption instead, making it a totally non-event.

Yes, and to emphasize his point, Peter Drucker says there is nothing so useless as doing efficiently that which should not be done at all.  DAP has been having campaign after campaign, ceramah after ceramah for sixty years, expounding their fight against corruption and abuse of power.  At the end of the day it has proven to be totally useless.  And if they continue at it without giving up (because they still have not come to the realization), they will be in danger of ignoring the advice of another wise man, Albert Einstein.  Einstein says that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is called insanity.

And the fact that DAP is the best opposition that country has to offer (that party won a whopping number of 42 seats in parliament in the last election) reflects the deplorable state of our country.  DAP will never amount to anything simply because it didn't have the courage to try anything yet.  Having slogans like "Malaysian Malaysia" and "fighting corruption, etc" don't count.

It's all much ado about nothing; a catchy phrase from the world's most famous author and playwright, Shakespeare, as well as the greatest writer of fables, Mr Aesop.

Malaysia needs a new strategy and a new script.

References:-

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/08/13/survey-shows-90pc-sales-drop-in-malaysian-malls-association-predicts-more-t/1997300

IT'S NOT TOO LATE

 

It's not too late for Malaysia.  Sadly, for many our beautiful country is a failed state.  Wherever they look there is heartache.  Today is even worse with people dying from Covid and businesses coming to a grinding halt.  We used to hear of deserving students not getting the chance to study.  And outstanding ones being snapped up by our neighbours and other countries and they have gone on to excel to do our country proud just by being born here and nothing more than that.  Here is a country where corrupt leaders can still stand proud and hardworking, capable people have to cower in fear.

All this started a long time ago, about sixty years.  That was the time when our opposition leaders made all the wrong choices that led to the sad state of affairs today.  

THE FAILURE OF MCA

PKR was not born yet; only race-based parties like MCA, MIC, Gerakan and DAP were from the early days.  MIC is too small to be really significant.  MCA was a race-based Chinese party that gave up fighting for Chinese rights and chose to just pledge allegiance to the ruling Malay parties.  We do not know why exactly they made such a choice.  Probably they felt it was hopeless to fight against the Malay majority race, and they had a pact that goes back to pre-independence days.  (The same thing goes for MIC which many say is the mirror image of MCA for the Indians.)  Gerakan was roughly the same story, too.

The result of that choice is that for most of this country's history, MCA is branded the traitor and, running dog of the Chinese (running dog is the Chinese term for traitor).  The party was so hated that the last election saw them winning only one miserable seat in parliament.  The saddest part is that they may not have realised the error of their choice since the early days and will continue to pursue their proven path to failure.

DAP'S ELUSIVE DREAM

DAP had wonderful aspirations embodied in their slogans "Malaysian Malaysia" and "fighting corruption and abuse of power."  However, it is sad to note that after sixty years they have not progressed beyond their slogan which still remained just a slogan.  It's a party without any significant membership of the majority Malay race, thus making their slogan meaningless.  And they still have not realised that as long as they do not fight the root cause of the problems in Malaysia, that is, race and religion, they will never be able to realise their other noble slogan of "fighting corruption and abuse of power."  

Right from Day One they have surrendered their ideals of Malaysian Malaysia because they are convinced that they will never be able to attract Malay votes during elections, just as they are not able to attract Malay membership.  

As a result of such a defeated mindset they have to resort to the next best thing, that is, to find some Malay parties to partner with in order to get more political control of the country.  Such a terrible compromise saw them regularly landing themselves in compromising positions.  Their partnership with PAS was doomed from the start but their wrong choice from Day One made sure they did not see it that way.  Eventually they have to resign themselves and arrive at the correct conclusion that PAS will forever continue to pursue hudud and their efforts to sway PAS away from such a stand was indeed futile.  They then divorce themselves from PAS.  

They also tried getting Malay votes by partnering with PKR.  But they also did not realise that by doing so they would be getting themselves into situations that are totally beyond their control.  Anwar was convicted (rightly or wrongly) of sodomy and PKR was without their leader.  

Their last attempt to partner themselves with Malays was with their oldest political foe, Dr Mahathir, in the last election.  At first things seem to run smoothly and went according to plan.  However, Mahathir inevitably showed his old self which was the King of race and religion politics in Malaysia.  He got the non-Malays in the country so riled up that they placed unbearable pressure on DAP who had no choice but to keep pressuring him to pass the baton to Anwar.  His refusal to do so caused the temperature to rise above breaking point.  He resigned as prime minister and brought down the whole PH Cabinet together with him.  That has led to the PN government we are having today.

Has DAP learned anything?  I don't believe so.  They will not go back on their decision made on Day One, that is, to give up fighting against the majority race.  They will continue to look for "suitable" Malay leaders and Malay parties and align themselves behind them.  (Hey!  That sounds familiar.  Where have I heard it?  Oh yeah, that was MCA's strategy.)  It is obvious they have not heard about Einstein's advice, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

George Eliot gave us wonderful encouragement - It's never too late to become what we might have been.  And there's a wonderful clue in the Chinese proverb, "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago.  The second best time is now." It means we should start doing the right thing today.  We have no choice.  The alternative would be looking for another country to migrate to, because for many people this country is becoming unlivable by the day.  

Do we want to continue believing there is nothing we can do to change the situation?  Then we must not complain that the government has failed.  (They say we get the government we deserve.)  We must not complain that we would soon be dying of Covid at the rate things are going.  We must not complain that we are getting into a lot of debt and we are getting poorer by the day.  We must not complain that our children will suffer worse than us.  And we must not complain that in the event that we actually migrate we will be beaten up by other guys in a strange land.

Yes, there is something we can do about our beloved country.  But it must start with us.  It must start with a new belief in a new tomorrow.  And together as Malaysians we can rise up and overcome all the great problems we are facing right now.  And we can overcome the forces that brought about our situation today.  Remember the final advice of Tunku Abdul Rahman, "The power lies with the Rakyat."  Not the politicians and the political parties.  We the Rakyat have the power.  Tunku would be sad that we didn't listen to him.

Make no mistake; it is going to be an uphill task all the way starting from today.  Don't be surprised if it is as difficult as climbing Mount Everest.  Always remember, we are doing this for our children.  But rest assured when we are doing this together we will definitely succeed.  We will not only build a country that is free from all these problems.  We will actually build a country that is world-class.  A country that will attract all the Malaysians who have left for greener pastures elsewhere and are longing to come back.  A country that we all as Malaysians will eventually be proud of.

THE BIGGEST THREAT TO SUCCESS

 

They say there is no elevator to success.  And it's true.  We see this everyday.  In the money world, people do not spend the time to do research before investing.  They just buy on tips and sell on rumors.  And keep losing money but still stick to the same strategy.  Because winning is hard.  It involves lots of effort and sacrifices.

On the political front in Malaysia we see DAP and MCA, both Chinese parties trying to do something good for the Chinese and for all Malaysians.  After sixty years what results have they got to show?

DAP is still predominantly a Chinese party that only wins Chinese votes, despite having a slogan "Malaysian Malaysia."  After six long decades, they have not attracted significant Malay membership.  In order to secure enough political power to effect change they resorted to shortcuts by partnering with Malay parties. Although it is well known that PAS is a religious extremist party bent on doing hudud, DAP had no choice but to partner with them.  It is the shortcut to success.  It ended badly with PAS insisting on hudud and DAP finally had no choice but to abandon the partnership.  Next, they partnered with PKR with Anwar at the helm.  Due to reasons beyond their control DAP did not find any success,  because Anwar was convicted (rightly or wrongly) of sodomy.  The final bet was to embrace their greatest old foe Mahathir in order to try to finally do something good for the country.  And how did it end?  Badly, as always.  Mahathir, in his twilight years made a final push for race and religion, the two items closest to his heart.  It thoroughly angered the non-Malay community and it is possible the stress on his allies eventually caused him to resign as prime minister and brought down the whole Cabinet with him.  So much for shortcuts.  Sixty years and back to square one.

MCA is slightly smarter, they say.  They have reached the conclusion since Day One that it is a futile battle.  Malaysia is predominantly Malay and there is no way the Chinese can control politics.  The best strategy is to play along with the strongest Malay political party.  That's all.  Wonderful shortcut.  And how did it play out?  They became the most hated Chinese party and won only one miserable seat in parliament in the latest election.  And they are still sticking to their strategy because they don't want to climb the Mount Everest of Malaysian politics.

THE WAY TO SUCCESS

The way to success is not to embrace shortcuts but to do what is necessary.  Just like Peter Drucker says, "It's more important to do the right thing than to do things right."

In order to bring about sustainable and lasting success for Malaysia, there is no other way but to put into practice the Robert Kuok Theory which says the country must be run by people who are honest and capable, starting from the leadership downwards.

If we have such politicians who are of prestige in our country right now we should invite them to lead a new party to secure power to effect change.  It may not happen in the next election or even the subsequent one.  But it will be successful soon enough and we will have a new country we can all be proud of.  The alternative of partnering with existing leaders or parties who are doomed will cause us to lose another sixty years or even more.

NEGARAKU

In order for a new political party to be successful, it must publish a book containing the new deal.  This book must debunk the theory and social experiment under the old deal as expounded in Mahathir's book, The Malay Dilemma.

The contents of the book tentatively titled NegaraKu must include:-

1.  A vision of the new Malaysia - safe and comfortable, with opportunities for all regardless of race, religion or financial status.  A world-class nation that is comparable or surpassing that of developed countries in terms of financial stability, mentality, environment, technology, etc.

2.  A plan on how to reach that goal ie. having the right leadership and personnel running the country comprising honest and capable people who are highly qualified in their areas of expertise.  Above all, it must contain an assurance to the majority race of voters that their privileges and benefits will remain intact and even enhanced under the new deal.

3.  A brief discussion regarding the causes of failure of the old deal.

4.  A promise and guarantee of an iron-clad framework and system that will ensure that the new party achieves its goals in the shortest possible time.

HOW CAN A NEW POLITICAL PARTY SUCCEED?

 In order to bring about change or reform and to build a new and better country, a new political party outlined earlier must succeed in following areas:-

1.  Marketing.  It must give Malaysians a chance to know their manifesto and formula for a new deal.  One of the best ways to do this is via publication of a book to refute the formula found in  the book The Malay Dilemma.  Malaysians and voters across the country must be aware this new deal so that they can vote for it.  The party must have a face and a voice of its leader who represents the spirit of the party and its new deal.

2.  Delivery or execution.  Once Malaysians get to know and accept the new party, they must execute and perform on their promises.  If they have not attained power they need to have something like a shadow Cabinet with proposals by competent professionals on what must be done and how to run the country well, so that voters can get a glimpse of their country's future when it is run by that new party.

3.  Financing.  Without the proper financial support, marketing and execution will be impossible.  The plan on paper will fall flat and the project will be stillborn.  We must invite people and insitutions of means to join in chip in their support for a better country.  Financiers must feel that the new party will stand a realistic chance to succeed before they throw their weight behind that party.

The party will need a sales kit to convince financiers.  The sales kit will comprise the book for the new deal, tentatively titled NegaraKu.  They will need election campaign plans and execution details, and a list of FAQs for voters and financiers alike.

4.  Leadership and personnel.  The new party should welcome people from all races to participate in its leadership and execution team.  As mentioned earlier, if they are honest and capable they are qualified to join and lead the party, which is governed by its Constitution whereby leader and follower alike must abide.  The Constitution will include criteria that members must meet in order to assume any position of responsibility.

THE NEW DEAL FOR MALAYSIANS

Malaysia has been run based on the principle expounded by Dr Mahathir in his book The Malay Dilemma, published in 1970.  The main theme of Mahathir's theory is that the Malays who are the majority race in Malaysia, are inferior to the Chinese who have 4,000 years of history surviving wars, plagues, famine, natural disasters and corrupt officials.  They are able to survive under the most adverse conditions.  On the contrary, the Malays do not have this ability.  Therefore, his conclusion is that the Malays must be helped and given a handicap, just like in a game of golf.  Otherwise, they will not be able to compete and this will result in the majority race being sidelined.  And this will eventually result in an unstable country with violence as a possible outcome.

Mahathir's theory and social experiment as mentioned above is deeply flawed.  After running the country based on this prognosis, the country is widely perceived as lagging behind our neighbours who were once considered backward.  They have progressed and overtaken Malaysia.  In fact, Mahathir himself admited that he has failed because his New Economic Policy or NEP has failed to bring progress for the Malays as he expected, depite repeated encouragement and scoldings by him from time to time, while at the same time admitting that the Chinese still hold the upperhand despite the handicap given.

However, the country up till now is still running on the fuel of affirmative action.  This is partly because nobody or no political party has proposed a new deal for all Malaysians - deal that is cohesive and comprehensive.  A deal that revokes that premises of Mahathir's The Malay Dilemma.

Therefore, a new political party must outline the terms of the new deal for all Malaysians.  This deal must include the following:-

1.  The assurance and guarantee of political power and privileges of the Malays who are the majority race in the country - including religious freedom, economic privileges for all classes of Malays, and guaranteed education quota for the willing and deserving.

2.  The guarantee of various forms of assistance to other races in Malaysia such as economic, business and educational opportunities for the deserving, regardless of race.

3.  The removal of shackles of race and religion in politics.  (We can follow the good example of our neighbour Indonesia who bans politicians from using or abusing race and religion in their political ceramahs.  Former US President Barack Obama who visited our country also said that any country that divides itself along racial lines will not succeed.  We need to bring back the good old days of muhibbah for all Malaysians.)

The politics of race and religion is powerful because it is self-reinforcing.  Malay politicians portray themselves as heroes and saviours of the Malays and their religion in order to garner votes.  After securing power they will give some handouts to the majority race in order to obtain their continual support.  However, it is also destructive because the elite Malay politicians and their cronies will pocket a lot of the country's wealth and leave the Malays still struggling for indefinite periods of time.  A new deal must break this powerful force misusing race and religion for personal benefit, under the pretext of helping the Malays.  But first they need to win the trust of the Malays which is probably at its easiest level right now under the scourge of Covid.  All races are frustrated with the incompetent way the government that is run by Malays right now, including the Malays themselves.  They are all desperate to have a "third force" or new political power that can change their situation for the better.

The opposition led by DAP will never be able to reverse the situation because they have failed in their ideals of creating a Malaysian Malaysia.  It is all along perceived as a Chinese party.  One of the reasons is that they are unable to solve their racial composition within their own party.  The Malays are suspicious because they are not properly represented according to the ratio of their population in the country.  How would they be able to solve this problem on a national basis if they can't even solve it internally?  This has resulted in very clumsy partnerships with PAS, PKR and even Mahathir's Bersatu, which all ended badly.